ABS-CBN poll: RP Q4 GDP likely eased to 6.32%
The Philippine economy likely expanded at a slower pace in the fourth quarter as exports continued to weaken, hurt by a strong peso, analysts said.
But the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for full-year 2007 could have climbed as high as 7.0 percent, the fastest rate in 30 years, owing to strong services and farm sectors as well as robust remittances from overseas Filipinos that buoyed consumer spending.
Economic growth in the fourth quarter slightly slowed to 6.32 percent from 6.6 percent in the third quarter, according to the median estimate in an ABS-CBN survey of ten economists.
"Weak export demand and ongoing peso strength probably mean a very aggressive bounce back from a weak real GDP growth in the third quarter will be harder to achieve and a moderation of four-quarter GDP growth should be expected in 2008," said UBS, which lowered its 2008 economic growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.0 percent from the previous 6.1 percent.
Singapore’s DBS said: "The impact of a sharply stronger peso on the economy will continue to be evident, with our estimates indicating an 8.3-percent year-on-year drop in exports."
Exports fell 2.0 percent in November and rose only 4.76 percent in the first 11 months of 2007 as global demand for electronic products softened. Electronics account for the bulk of the country’s export earnings.
Economists said that a recession in the US is sure to dampen Philippine exports as well as local and overseas jobs, even with diversified export markets.
The US is a vital market for Asian countries and a recession could lead to a global downturn.
But the government is confident that the Philippines would weather a US-led economic slowdown given its strong macroeconomic fundamentals.
The government earlier said that the economy probably grew by 6.9-7.3 percent in 2007.
Reference: www.abs-cbnnews.com
